๐Ÿ”ฎ Theism Probability Engine

A Bayesian framework for evaluating classical arguments for theism. Rate your confidence in each premise, explore evidence and objections, and watch your worldview emerge. Read every evidence tab before rating โ€” the arguments are stronger than you may think.

The argument with highest core probability
Strongest Argument
โ€”
Average across all rated core conclusions
Avg Core Probability
โ€”
Divine properties with evidence
Properties Assessed
0 / 0
Product of all properties (floor = Christian God)
Composite Theism
โ€”
Arguments with all core premises rated
Arguments Rated
0 / 0
๐Ÿ“ก Property Radar

Visual representation of evidence strength for each divine property

โœจ Property Combinator

Select which divine properties to include. The result shows the probability of a being possessing all selected properties. Note: selecting "Christian God" is a floor โ€” adding more properties cannot lower it below that value.

Combined Probability
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Noisy-OR aggregation ยท Independence assumed across arguments
๐Ÿ“Š Sensitivity Analysis
Which premises impact your worldview most? Ranked by effect of a 10% increase on Composite Theism.
๐Ÿ‘ค Philosopher Presets

Load configurations based on how notable thinkers might rate these arguments.

How This Works

Rate Core Premises

Each argument has core premises. Slide to your confidence (0โ€“100%). Core conclusion = product of all premise probabilities.

Read the Evidence Carefully

Toggle to see supporting evidence for each premise โ€” the arguments are much stronger than popular discourse suggests. Read before rating.

Engage the Objections

Objections are listed with their rebuttals. Note whether you find the rebuttal decisive before adjusting your rating.

Evaluate Post-Argument Properties

Given the conclusion holds, how likely is each divine property? Your confidence combines with core probability.

Properties Aggregate Globally

Multiple arguments supporting the same property combine via noisy-OR: more independent evidence = higher probability.

Entailment Flows Automatically

"Christian God" entails all properties. "Maximally Great" entails most. Evidence flows without double-counting.

Math:
โ€ข Core conclusion = Pโ‚ ร— Pโ‚‚ ร— โ€ฆ ร— Pโ‚™
โ€ข Property contribution = core ร— post-premise
โ€ข Combined property = 1 โˆ’ โˆ(1 โˆ’ contributionแตข) (noisy-OR)
โ€ข Combo = max(โˆ combinedProp(pโ‚–), christianGodProb) when Christian God selected
โ€ข Composite Theism โ‰ฅ Christian God probability at all times
๐Ÿ“– Glossary
Noisy-OR
Probabilistic combination: P(effect) = 1 โˆ’ โˆ(1 โˆ’ P(causeแตข)). More independent evidence = higher probability. Prevents double-counting.
Entailment
If A is true, B must be true. "Christian God" entails "Personal" โ€” if Christian God exists, He is necessarily personal.
S5 Modal Logic
If possibly necessary, then necessary (โ—‡โ–กP โ†’ โ–กP). Used in the Ontological Argument to show possibility entails actuality for necessary beings.
Properly Basic
Beliefs rational without inferential support, like "other minds exist" or "the past is real." Not everything needs a proof.
PSR
Principle of Sufficient Reason: everything has an explanation for its existence โ€” either in its nature (necessary being) or in an external cause.
BGV Theorem
Borde-Guth-Vilenkin (2003): any universe with average positive expansion must have a past spacetime boundary. Applies to virtually all cosmological models.